Using Deception To Falsely Claim US Crime Rise
FBI 2012 Uniform Crime Report Says That
Gun Crime Is Down, Again - Mainstream Media Falsely Peddles
Wrong Statistics On Gun Violence
Tim Watts - 122612
2011 New York Times article revealing data that shows
violent crime was at a 40 year low... or despite a
2011 BBC article that claims US violent crime has been
dropping for over twenty years... or despite FBI statistics
that show that
violent crime has plummeted over 50 percent in the last 15
years... and despite the fact that the
murder rate has dropped by over 60 percent or that
murders by gun are down for the 5th straight year.... the
corporate mainstream media appears hell bent on manipulating
figures, alleging that violent crime is on the rise by 18
percent over the last year.
Nothing could be further from
the truth in regards to violent crime.
As a matter of fact, the
corporate MSM has gone out of its way to manipulate the
numbers, apparently in a deceptive attempt to make its case
for gun control in the US... even
though the FBI's own statistics show that gun violence
Fact: Guns are the
third weapon of choice in aggravated assault, barely
beating out knives. Here are the most recent FBI
The FBI UCR chart below reveals
the most recent statistics, based off of 2011 figures. (They
will not release 2012 until sometime in 2013.)
These FBI statistics reveal that in
a massive population of 310-million people, there were only
12,664 murders by gun in 2011. That is a paltry figure
compared to the overall population.
Out of those stats,
murders were committed with some sort of long rifle,
some reason they are seeking to take away the one weapon
that is a threat, not to the population, but to an organized
police state, or an infantry, that would attempt to assault the population. This
is a fact.
Handguns were the cause of the bulk of gun
murders, but they are no match to an organized infantry. They
do not shoot as far, nor do they have the long distance
accuracy of a long rifle.
Only the long rifle is a threat to a growing police state.
So, you have to ask yourself,
why is someone trying to take away long rifles, rather than
handguns? A killer can cause just as much damage in a gun
free zone with a handgun as they can a long rifle. As
another matter of fact, a handgun is preferred in a close
quarters situation, compared with a long rifle. It is much
easier to aim a handgun in a short distance, as opposed to a
One other fact that the media is
missing... "assault weapons" are already banned in the US. A
true assault rifle is an automatic weapon; a machine gun. No one is allowed
automatic weapons in the US, except for the military.
Semi-automatic weapons, even with large capacity clips, are
not considered, by definition, as assault weapons.
Click on the graphic above for a
CNN has been in lockstep with
the rest of the media, for not reporting the actual facts as
they relate to gun violence, facts that they are well aware
of. Once you know the real story you will realize that CNN's
Soledad O'Brien, and UK fugitive Piers Morgan, both should
have known better, yet both viciously attacked noted gun
Professor John Lott.
The ever arrogant
Morgan had the temerity to call Lott a liar on the air, while the ever
clueless O'Brien tried to rebuff Lott's factual evidence
with her own personal dismay, literally at a loss for words,
with no salient points or tenable argument, saying in
position completely boggles me."
Facts have a way of doing that
to those who are ignorant, uninformed, blindly stupid, or perhaps pushing an
Let's examine the facts.
First off, the evidence against
CNN. This once heralded news giant published two stories,
both only twelve days apart, which are clearly at odds with
U.S. violent crime up for first time in years and
U.S. violent crime down for fifth straight year.
Both of these articles
were written by the same person, CNN Justice Producer Terry Frieden.
As you will see from the story links, the first
article was published on October 17th, while the latter
appeared on October 29th, respectively coinciding with the
yearly release of data from the
Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), and the
Uniform Crime Report (UCR).
Both of these are government agency reports, although the
two appear to be as different as night and day.
One thing is most certain though,
because of their publication of both the BJS and the FBI UCR
obviously knows full well about the truth regarding the decline of violent
crime in the US, yet they chose instead to sic their
pit-bulls on a tenured professor who has literally written
the book on violent crime in America. As the author of "More
Guns. Less Crime,
John Lott has done his homework, and has become a noted
authority on gun violence in America.
After watching the raucous discourse and
adversarial manner in which CNN went after Lott, one might
also draw the conclusion that their invitation for him to
appear on their network was not to glean insight into gun
violence, but rather to ridicule him personally, while
attacking his work and potentially denigrating his position
as an authority on such gun violence.
For the record, Mr. Lott does not claim to be
a 2nd amendment activist. He openly told Soledad O'Brien
that he merely reports on gun violence in the US.
So, why would CNN go to great lengths in an
attempt to make such a mockery of a noted gun crime expert?
When a news organization invites a well
researched expert to be an on-air guest, it is usually
with the utmost respect for their seasoned experience and
their well researched insight. It is generally taboo in good journalism to
rip apart the integrity of a respectable guest, for two reasons:
Number one, you run the risk of appearing to
your viewers as a bully, or the bad guy, thus alienating
Number two, you also run the risk of scaring
off any potential future guests who certainly do not want to
be publicly assaulted on-air with an adversarial hit piece,
generally known as ambush journalism or attack journalism.
It is fairly safe to assume that CNN knew
exactly what they were doing in trying to defame a well
researched author, to discredit his standing for anyone who
might be viewing their agenda driven news hit piece.
CNN, like the rest of the corporate
mainstream media, is purposefully driving the agenda to take
away our guns. When you look at the facts, it's hard to
rationalize anything else.
Now, let's get to the real meat of the issue
here, there are obviously two sets of crime statistics, the BJS
and the UCR data. The FBI's UCR is widely considered the
more reliable indicator of violent crime, yet the media
has seen fit to only address the more unfavorable statistics
from the BJS, which provides decidedly
deceptive data in two ways that make
their crime statistics quite misleading.
Here is how the BJS does that...
First off, the BJS combines simple
assault, a crime with no weapon involved, with that of
violent aggravated assault. That is very misleading, because
now you're lumping apples with oranges, two entirely
different things, other than the fact that crime is crime
and fruit is fruit.
In order to feign a rise in US violent crime,
the BJS added 3.9 million "simple assaults" from 2011 to
their statistics on "violent assaults."
Color it any way you like, but when
it comes to
the media, it seems wholly disingenuous to include simple
assault in the conversation when you're trying to ascertain
a rise in gun violence, or violent crime. The media should
A much more accurate assessment of violent
crime can be measured through the Uniform Crime Report (UCR),
which looks at nothing but aggravated assault, such as
murder, robbery and rape. It does not include simple
assault, as the BJS does.
So, let's be sure to clarify and be certain
to make the point here... "violent" crime is the issue being
addressed right now in the US, after the mass shootings. We
are not debating simple assault, which deals with
no weapons at all.
To combine these two statistics, violent
crime with simple assault, is, at best, remarkably
misleading, if not deceptive and quite
deceiving. Simple assault can include domestic abuse, such
as marital conflict, or a barroom fight. This is not
violent crime, as
noted by the more accurate and more reliable UCR.
Secondly, and perhaps the most egregious
offense, the BJS combines empirical data on violent crime
from law enforcement databases, with outcall polling
that they conduct through telephone surveys from their National Crime Survey,
also known as the
National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).
This mixed combination of data is an
outright aberration as far as statistics gathering goes. Any
statistician worth his salt will tell you the same, these
are two different animals... hard core finite data versus human
recall. The two do not hold the same degree of validity.
Again, it's apples and oranges.
The important thing to understand about
outcall polling is, it is entirely dependent on the honesty
and integrity of the individuals being polled. A person's
own recall, or their perceptions of an event, are not
data. It is soft data, the kind you get from focus groups or
outcall polling. Hard data is quantitative data, pulled from
statistical research, from a database of factual evidence.
Make no mistake about it, hard data and soft
data are two different things and the two should never be
combined together, if you want irrefutable data. If
conjecture is what you're after, well then, have at it and
knock yourself out.
Now, let's look at the data being expressed
here, that which they falsely attribute to an 18 percent
rise in violent crime over the last year in the US.
The statistics expressed in the new BJS crime
figures represent a jump from 19.3 out of 1000 persons, with
22.5 for every 1000 persons. That is not a sharp jump in
crime. Number one, these are diminutive numbers when you
look at them for what they are. The statistic of 19.3 out of
1000 equates to a paltry 1.93 percent. The big jump that they
allege is barely a minor skip, rising to a mere 2.25 percent for
every 1000 people. That is indeed very small.
Given those tiny percentages, keep in mind
that the bump in those numbers came from the incorrect
addition of soft data and hard data.
It is laughable to entertain such a slight
rise in so-called "violent crime," especially when you
realize that they pad those numbers with simple assault, and
yet these new statistics are the best they could come up
To be clear, serious "violent" crime includes
aggravated assault with a weapon, armed robbery, rape, and
sexual assault, Last year, an estimated 1.8 million of these
crimes occurred, but according to CNN's own story
increase from the previous year was calculated to be
essentially meaning no major change!
It is curious as to how they arrived at an 18
percent increase, because my math, unless it is flawed,
shows only a 14 percent increase, when using the
undeniably skewed BJS numbers.
Let's go back to soft data for a
moment, specifically the National Crime Survey. When doing
call out surveys, a margin of error is attributed to the
data, based on how accurate the dataset is, and if it truly
reflects across a larger population. The most accurate way
to get reliable outcall polling data is with a very large
sample to extrapolate data from. The larger the sample size,
the more reliable that data is in relation to a larger
population base. Conversely, the smaller the sample size,
the less accurate the data. For this reason a "margin of
error" is assigned to outcall polling.
For example... a three percent
margin of error is deemed more acceptable than a six percent
margin of error and here is why. The margin of error means
that your data results can swing in either direction. That
means, with a margin of error of three, a survey rating of
20 could in actuality be a 17, or it could be a 23. If the
study were conducted again with similar numbers, but with a
different group, the margin or error should fall somewhere
in the same range as the last survey.
With this said, it would be nice
to know the margin of error contained within the National
Crime Survey, now known as the National Crime Victimization
Survey, or NCVS for short. The
NCVS methodology does not indicate such a number.
So, the bottom line here is...
the BJS statistics are pure BS when you try to ascertain
"violent crime" in the US.
So now, ask yourself this, why is the
corporate mainstream media
trying to capitalize on the BJS statistics at this time,
rather than reporting the more germane and much more
accurate UCR data?
Why did CNN allow Soledad O'Brien and Piers
Morgan to dance around statistics that they themselves had
on hand in their own newsroom?
The only reasonable answer is, to get you
scared. This is all about the new gun control agenda. They
are doing the same thing that they did after 9/11, fomenting
false fear to sell a nefarious secret agenda for a US police state.
After all, they refused to report on
NDAA 2012, which circumvents Posse Comitatus, nor HR
658, which allows the use of
30,000 spy drones over America. The media is undeniably
complicit in the push for a
US police state.
There are clearly statistics out there that
prove conclusively that violent crime is still on the
decline, even with the recent spate of mass shootings. The
UCR data proves just that.
To quote CNN's own article,
which quotes the UCR report:
Compared with 2010, the new
violent crime down 3.8 percent overall.
Property crime was down 0.5 percent.
Among violent incidents reported
murders were down about 0.7 percent,
dropped 4 percent,
aggravated assaults declined
rapes were down 2.5 percent.
Are you starting to get the picture here?
Again, to repeat what was said
at the start of this article...
Murder by gun is
down for the 5th year in a row!
Guns are the 3rd
weapon of choice for aggravated assault!
Violent crime is
at a 40 year low!
has been dropping for over 20 years!
Murders are down
over 60 percent!
Violent crime is
down in the US for the 5th straight year!
So why is the corporate
mainstream media trying to say that we have a serious gun
violence issue rising in America?
CIA data-mining asset Google also appears to
be just as responsible for pushing the false statistics. A
search using "violent crime in America" yields the following
links, all decrying the false notion of an 18 percent rise
in violent US crime...
Christian Science Monitor,
UPI News, and the
Washington Times all come to the forefront of a Google
search, and all disseminating the false BJS data. Only the
MSNBC News seems to have the correct UCR data.
With this said, it still only
took this reporter less than ten minutes to find the correct
data on the internet; something the mainstream media should
also be able to accomplish.
The point of this article is,
corporate mainstream media is clearly driving an agenda
for gun control and a repeal of the 2nd amendment. They are
quite obviously complicit in perpetuating the false gun
violence ruse. They will try to tell you that all of America
is behind the ban on weapons, yet the real indicator of the
American mindset seems to be clear... after every mass
shooting, gun sales have gone through the roof.
The MSM has been tragically
remiss in reporting this trend, let alone the current
gun run since Sandy Hook, which has all gun dealers out of
supply, with manufactures scrambling to catch up with the
So much for the media narrative
that all of America is behind the current effort to ban
guns, particularly semi-automatic weapons and large capacity
It should also be noted, just to
clear up the media fallacy, that semi-automatic weapons are
not "assault weapons." Only automatic weapons are classified
as true assault weapons, but that's obviously not the
message that the media wants to perpetuate for their false
narrative on gun violence. Once again, this just goes to
show you that the media is pushing a carefully engineered
It also proves that CNN and its
bloviating blowhards, Soledad O'Brien and Piers Morgan, were
clearly out of line and unjustified in their attack on gun
violence expert John Lott. They shot their mouths
off with rancor and venom, completely incoherent of the real
facts. They indeed owe Mr. Lott an apology. This reporter
can only hope that Lott decides to sue the fugitive Morgan
for slander after being called a liar on public television.
The greater point is, violent
gun crime is not rising in America. Anyone who says anything
to the contrary is, once again, either ignorant, uninformed,
blindly stupid, or perhaps pushing an orchestrated
agenda that benefits a US police state and a
CFR push for a
new world order dictatorship.
In the case of Soledad O'Brien
and Piers Morgan, this reporter chooses to believe that they
are all of the above.
Copyright © 2012 by Tim Watts
Gun Control Issue
Sandy Hook Murders Are Not As We Are Led To Believe
Obama And Biden Forget Their
Campaign Speeches On Guns
CNN Host And UK Wire-Tapping
Fugitive Piers Morgan Wants Our Guns
Save Lives (Stories of gun owners who have stopped
Sign The Orion Talk Radio Equal Gun Justice Petition
FBI data shows a rapid decline
in US violent crime.
According to the FBI's Uniform Crime
Report, murders by gun has dropped for five straight years
in a row, even with mass shootings included in the
statistics. The media is indeed crying wolf over the gun
control issue, most disingenuously, if not very deceptively.
According to the FBI's Uniform Crime
Report (UCR) baseball bats and clubs are
the leading weapon of choice for violent crime. So why
are we not asking for the registration and restriction of
baseball bats? Is it really that silly? We just had to ask.